[营销星球]瑞银-2020全球经济与市场展望-2019.11.11-408页(5)

www.ubs.com/investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE401.???GlobalResearch11November2019GlobalEconomics&MarketsOutlook2020-2021Forourpickoftopcharts&ideas,seeaccompanyingsummary:TheSkinny20-21Weexpectarecoveryin2020butamuchweakeronethanconsensusThingswillgetworsebeforetheygetbetter.AssuminganyPhaseOneUS-Chinadealislimited(notariffroll-back),theexistingtariffsshouldcontinuetoworktheirwayintothedataandcreateanair-pocketinUSgrowthinH1-20`(weare60bpbelowconsensusontheUS,20bponChinaand30bponglobalGDPgrowth).TariffshavebeenthefocusbutothercurrentsareshiftingWeshowthattheAutocycleaccountsforuptohalfoftheglobalindustrialproductionweakness,theTechcyclecontributed30-40%ofthenominaltradeweakness,andtheUSShalecyclehasalsobecomeamajordri