[营销星球]瑞信-中国网络借贷行业：零售融资模式的转型-2019.10.9-65页

ChinaOnlineLendingSectorTransformationfromaretail-fundedmodelDiversifiedFinancials|InitiationFigure1:Coveredonlinelenders:%institutionalfundingvsYTDsharepricereturnNote:9Frepresentspost-IPOsharepricereturn.Closingpricesasof8Oct,2019.Source:Companydata■BracingforanintensifyingP2Pclean-up.WeseetwofundamentalconflictsatthecoreoftheP2Pmodel:(1)riskappetitemismatchbetweeninvestorsandborrowers,and(2)highregulatorycostvssmallsystemicimpact.WeexpectacceleratedP2Pplatformclean-upheadinginto4Q,withcontinuedroll-outofhighregulatoryhurdleswhilethe‘triple-reductions’(i.e.,reductioninthenumberofplatforms,outstandingbalance,andnumberofinvestors)remaininforceforanextendedperiodoftime—likelythrough1H2020.Amajority(~98%)ofthecurrently708operatingplatformsislikelyshutdownduringthisprocess.■Pickingthebest-positionedplayersintransf