高盛-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场策略观点：通胀死灰复燃与新兴市场“熔化”贸易-20180119-23页

WithreflationbackinfocusisEMindangerof“melting-up”?Despitethe!curveflatteningintheUS,ratesarerisingandbreakeveninflationisfollowingsuit.Alongwithreflationcomesthefearofassetsinbullmarkets“melting-up”,whichreferstovaluationsovershootingasthecyclematures,leadingtoaspikeinpricesbeforeareversal.However,wedonotfindthatthisriskisrelevanttothecurrentEMrun,asithasbeendrivenlargelybyimprovingearningsandabroad-basedaccelerationineconomicgrowth.EMequitiesowestrongperformancetorisingearnings,valuationshave!roomtoimprovevsDM.Ofthe34%riseinMSCIEMin201722%isattributabletolocalcurrencyEPSgrowth,5%toEMFXappreciation,andjust5%toincreasesinvaluations.ThehistoricalrelationshipbetweenrelativevaluationsofDMcyclicalsvsdefensivesandEMvsDMhasbrokendownrecentlywitha“growthpremium”forminginDMassetswhileEMlags.ThissuggeststhatEMvaluationshavesign