巴黎银行-南美-投资策略-哥伦比亚风险资产投资策略-20180123-11页

Pleaserefertoimportantinformation&authorsattheendofthereport&MARDisclosureLatamStrategy23January2018www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.comColombianriskassets:Divergingdrivers?WeupdatedourPrincipalComponentAnalysisonColombiariskassetsinordertounderstandthemaindriversbehindtheirperformance.?TheresultssuggesttheUSDsystemicrisk,USratesandtermsoftradehavebeenthemostimportantdriversfortheColombianpesoandthe5yCDSoverthepastweeks.?ThefactthatmovesinFXarenowmuchmorecorrelatedwithtermsoftradeisawelcomeretracementtowardsfundamentals,inourview.Whenwefactorintherallyseeninoilintoourfactormodel,thescopeforfurtherrallyisstillconsiderable.WeremainshortUSDCOP.?Regardingrates,theabsenceofco-variancebetweenIBRswaps(bothintheshort-endandlong-endofthecurve)andexternalvariablessuggeststhatdomesticfactorshavebeenthemostimportantdriversov