德银-金属与采矿业-工业金属2017Q4评论：企业准备改善价格涨势-20180123-16页

23January2018Metals&MiningIndustrialMetalsIndustrialsMetals&MiningResultsLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustryIndustrialMetalsDate23January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearch4Q17preview:CompaniessetforimprovementsonpricemomentumIndustrialMetals4Q17E:HighercommoditypricingdrivingstrongercashflowHeadingintothe4Q17results,weexpectIndustrialMetals4Q17EBITDAtoincrease6%QoQto$7.6bn(5%aboveconsensus)andNetDebttodecline8%(Valethelargestcontributor),onthebackofhighercommodityprices.WemaintainaBuyonTeck(valuationandexposuretozincandcopper)andFirstQuantum(de-leveragingandcopperproductiongrowth)althoughweacknowledgethiscompanycouldhaveaweaker4Q17resultwithourEBITDAforecast10%belowconsensus(largelyduetoZambiasstrongrainyseason).Weare9%aboveconsensusforVales4Q17EBITDAforecastbutmaintainaHoldaswebelievemostofthecatalystshavenowplayedout.Weretain