德银-全球-钢材市场-钢材价格追踪：西部市场价格持续上涨；煤价下跌-20180125-22页

25January2018SteelSteelPriceTrackerSteelSteelPeriodicalEuropeAustriaFranceIndustrySteelPriceTrackerDate25January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchWesternmarketpriceskeepmovingup;CoaldownWillsteelpricesfallormaintaintheirstrength?Steelequitiescontinuetobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillexpectcostsupporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionswouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace).?Ourtoppicksare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(8-9%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:N.EuropeanpricesupE7Figure1:HRCprices200250300350400450500550600650700750800850