麦格里-东南亚-投资策略-马来西亚策略：大选回顾-20180122-12页

Pleaserefertopage10forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.MALAYSIAMGSbondyieldvsMGSforeignholdingSource:BNM,Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,January2018USDMYRvsBrentoilpricesSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,January2018Malaysia:exportandimportgrowth(USD,y-y)Source:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,January2018Analyst(s)AnandPathmakanthan+60320598993anand.pathmakanthan@macquarie.com22January2018MacquarieCapitalSecurities(Malaysia)Sdn.Bhd.MalaysiaStrategyLookingpasttheelectiondistractionConclusion?Barringunanticipatedchangesinunderlyingexpectationsofasettledelectoralredelineationexerciseandthree-waycontests,ourbasecaseoutcomeforthegeneralelections(GE14;likelyMarch/April)iscontinuityretherulingBarisanNasionalcoalition.Withmannerofthevictorypotentiallyhavingrepercussionsrepost-GE14policy