那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“长远来看，我们皆已死亡”-20180123-6页

FlashEconomics23January2018-92PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.com“Inthelongrunwearealldead”Overthepast10years,governmentsandcentralbanksinOECDcountriesappeartohavebeenguidedbythisfamousquotefromJohnMaynardKeynes:?TheconsiderableincreaseinpublicdebtratioswillforceOECDcountriestocontinuouslyconductrestrictivefiscalpoliciesinthefutureorwillforcecentralbankstocontinuouslyensurefiscalsolvency(toyieldtofiscaldominance).Governmentsseemtobeoblivioustotheselong-termcosts;?Theconsiderableexpansioninthequantityofmoneyimplementedbycentralbanks,giventhatitisunlikelytobesignificantlycorrected,leadstoapermanentriskoffinancialinstability:asset-pricebubbles,highvariabilityinassetpricesandexchangerates,abnormalsqueezingofriskpremia.Theriskoffinancialinstabilityinthelongtermdoesnot