那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“大回转”太迟了么？-20180119-5页

FlashEconomics19January2018-84PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comToolateforthe“greatrotation”?The“greatrotation”takesplacewheninvestorsswitchtheirportfoliosfrombondstoequities.Greatrotationsusuallyoccurinthemiddleofexpansionperiods,whenlong-terminterestratesstarttorise(expectedreturnsonbondsthenbecomelowornegative)andthegrowthoutlookremainsupbeat,whichjustifiesbuyingequitieseventhoughlong-terminterestratesarerising.ThereweregreatrotationsinthepastintheUnitedStatesin1998-99and2004-2007,andintheeurozonein1998-2000,2006-2007andinearly2008.Butisitnowtoolatefortheretobeagreatrotation?Duetopersistentlyexpansionarymonetarypolicies,long-terminterestratesarerisingonlylateintheexpansionperiodatatimewhenthegrowthslowdownisimminent,soitisnottherighttimetobebuying