那提西-德国-宏观经济-德国过剩储蓄的众多影响-20180124-6页

FlashEconomics24January2018-76PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comThenumerouseffectsofGermanysexcesssavingsSincetheeuro-zonecrisis(2011-2013),excesssavingsinGermany(andtheNetherlands)arenolongerlenttoothereuro-zonecountries.Thishasnumerousconsequences:?Theeurozoneasawholehasexcesssavings,andtheeurozoneexcludingGermany(andtheNetherlands)hasashortfallininvestment,whichisweakeningeuro-zonegrowthintheshortandlongterm;?Theeurozonesexcesssavingsplacedownwardpressureonbothinflationandlong-terminterestrates;?Thisalsoleadstoanaccumulationofexternalassetsbytheeurozone,whichcontributestotheappreciationoftheeuro.Areturntocapitalmobilitybetweeneuro-zonecountrieswouldthereforeentailfortheeurozone:?Additionalinvestmentandgrowth;?Afasternormalisationofmonetarypolicyandinter