德银-中国-航空业-高空巡航，但要小心气流-20180210-31页

10February2018AirChineseAirlinesTransportationAirForecastChangeAsiaChinaIndustryChineseAirlinesDate10February2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchCruisingathighaltitudebutbewareofanyturbulenceGovernmentpoliciesandFXtomeetwithsomeheadwindsAstructuralchangeinfundamentalshascoincidedwitharadicalshiftininvestorflowsandownershipoftheHK-listedChineseairlines.Stockpriceshavesurgedabout46%inthreemonths(vs.HSCEIs1%appreciation)andvaluationshavemovedtolevelsnotseenin2.5years.Thefundamentalfactorsofyield,capacitycontrol,andFXunderpinsignificantearningsrevisionsof4-24%anda1%upliftinsustainablecoreRoEestimates;theseaccountformuchofourincreaseintargetmultiples.However,wehavealsoaccountedforSouthboundflowsinourassessmentandretainaBuyonChinaEasternAirlines-H(CEA-H)andSpringAirlines.FXandyieldpolicypositives,butdon’tgetoverexcitedNewregulatorypoli