那提西银行-亚太地区-经济理论-别只盯着需求侧-20180222-8页

FlashEconomics22February2018-194PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comStoplookingonlyatthedemandsideGrowthprospectsforOECDcountriesareoftenanalysedbylookingonlyattheoutlookfordemand:fiscalandmonetarypolicystance,globaltradegrowth,outlookforcorporateinvestmentandhousingpurchases,realwagegrowth.Butwhentheunemploymentrateapproachesthestructuralunemploymentrate,growthdependslessandlessonthegrowthindemandforgoodsandservicesandincreasinglyonthegrowthinsupplyofgoodsandservices.Atthestructuralunemploymentrate,thegrowthindemandforgoodsandservicesdeterminesonlyforeigntradeandpossiblyinflation.Thischangeinthedeterminationofgrowthwhentheunemploymentrateapproachesthestructuralunemploymentrateistoooftenforgotten.DistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosures