德银-欧洲-钢材市场-钢材价格追踪：价格继续上涨，南部与北欧价格的差距缩小-20180131-22页

31January2018SteelSteelPriceTrackerSteelSteelPeriodicalEuropeAustriaFranceIndustrySteelPriceTrackerDate31January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchSteelpricescontinuetorise-SouthclosesgaptoNorthernEuropeanpricesStrongsteelpricemomentumwithscopeforfurthermarginexpansionEquitiesremainpricedforamargincontraction(vs.spot).However,asdiscussedinourEuropeanSteelOutlook2018,weseeseveralreasons(highglobalpricelevels,protectionism,demandandconsolidation)whymarginsmaycontinuetostickorevenexpandfurther(whichwouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace).?Ourtoppicksare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(8-9%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:S.Europeanpricesu