德银-中国-金属与采矿业-中国煤炭业：近期反弹之后，风险回报发生分化-20180130-12页

30January2018Metals&MiningChinaCoalIndustryResourcesMetals&MiningIndustryUpdateAsiaChinaIndustryChinaCoalIndustryDate30January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchRisk-rewarddeterioratesafterrecentralliesQHDpricemighthitthepeaksoonQHDcoalprice(5500kcalFOB,VATincluded)hashitRMB742/tlastweek.WithcoldweatherandlowcoastalIPPinventorydays,QHDpricemightstillhavesomeroomtogoupincomingonetotwoweeks.Nevertheless,forcoaldemand/supplybalanceinFebruary,thetightbalancemightstarttobeloosendueto(1)coaldemandinFebruarynormallyabout20%+lowerthanJanresultingfromCNYholidays;(2)ChinesegovernmentrequestedSOEcoalproducerstoproduceasnormalduringCNY(noholidaysforcoalminers).Assuch,apossiblescenarioisthatQHDpriceinFebruarywillstarttocorrect.CoalequitiesalsohadgoodralliesinthepastmonthInthepastmonth,Shenhua’ssharepricehasrallied20%andChinaCoalha