德银-中国-制造业-中国铁路装备：被夸大的消极因素，积极因素被忽视-20180206-28页

6February2018ManufacturingChinaRailEquipmentIndustrialsManufacturingForecastChangeAsiaChinaIndustryChinaRailEquipmentDate6February2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNegativesoverblown,positivesoverlookedConcernsseemoverdone;three-yearequipmentupcyclestillintactSharepricesofChineserailequipmentnameshavecorrected14%onaverageYTD(HSCEI:+8%),likelydrivenbyCRCslower-than-expectedrailwaycapextargetfor2018.However,webelievesuchnegativesseemoverblownwhileanumberofpositivesbelowmayhavebeenoverlookedbythemarket.Onthesectorsrobustearningsrecoveryin2018E(DBe:+16-21%)andthree-yearupcycleahead,weseetherecentcorrectionasagoodbuyingopportunity.Webelievethefourpositivefactorsbelowhavebeenoverlookedbythemarket:1.FavorablemixshiftinEMUdeliveriestowardshigher-ASPmodels(blendedASP+16%yoy)andnewmodellaunches(160km/hpush-pullmodel)in2018,drivingthisyearsEMU