那提西银行-亚洲-宏观经济-印度能超越中国吗？-20180205-10页

FlashEconomics05February2018-112PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCouldIndiaovertakeChina?India’spopulationisnowsimilartothatofChina,andisexpectedtoovertakeitin2022.WhatwouldbeneededforIndia’sGDPtoovertakeChina’sinthefuture??Thelabourforce-thepopulationthatisinemployment-mustgrowfasterinIndiathaninChina,whichraisesthequestionoftheeducationlevelofthepopulationandruralexodus;?LabourproductivitymustgrowfasterinIndiathaninChina,whichraisesthequestionofthelevelofinvestment,theskilllevelofthepopulation,capitalmodernisationandpublicinfrastructure;?RecurringcrisesmustnothaltIndia’sgrowth,whichraisesthequestionofIndia’ssavingsshortfallandexternaldeficit.Altogether,IndiahasademographicadvantageoverChinabuthasmanyhandicaps:thepopulation’sskilllevel,weakcapitalmodern