瑞银-美股-宏观经济-美国经济透视：2月通胀月-2018.2.16-21页

www.ubs.com/economicsThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE18.??GlobalResearch16February2018USEconomicPerspectivesUSInflationMonthlyforFebruary2018TheJanuaryCPIreadingwasstrongThecoreCPIincreased0.35percentinJanuary.Surpriseswereconcentratedinapparel,medicalcareandtransportationservices.Wearetakingonboardonlyalittleofthesurprise.WenowexpectcorePCEinflationof2.1%2018and2.0%2019Anendingoftransitoryfactors,adeclineindollar,andatighteningintheeconomyalladdtoapickupininflationthisyearrelativetothe1.5percentincreaseincorePCEpricesin2017.NonethelessweakenergypriceskeepheadlinePCEpricesinflationabitbelowtheFOMCs2percentinflationobjective.Ata2.6percentincreasethisyear,thecoreCPIincreasesevenfasterthancorePCEpricesasaresultofstrongincreasesinhous