德银-新兴市场-外汇市场-ZAR战争：基本面反击-20180207-12页

DeutscheBankResearchEmergingMarketsSouthAfricaEconomicsForeignExchangeFXSpotFXVolatilityDate7February2018EMFXZARWars:Fundamentalsstrikeback________________________________________________________________________________________________________________DeutscheBankAG/LondonDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.GautamKalani,Ph.D.Strategist(+44)20754-57066gautam.kalani@db.comElinaRibakovaChiefEconomist(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comDaneleeMasiaEconomist(+27)11775-7267danelee.masia@db.comInthisreport,wediscussourbullishviewonZAR,arguingthatthereactionaryrallyaroundtheANCelectionoutcomecantransitionintoamoregradual,butsustained,appreciationbasedonfundamentalgreenshots,particularlyonthegrowth,inflationandcurrentaccountfronts.Rationale:WebelievetheZARrallyhastwophases.Thefirstphasewasth