德银-南非-宏观经济-南非：2018年预算分析——改变正在进行中-20180221-23页

21February2018EMSpecialPublicationSub-SaharanAfricaEconomicsEMSpecialPublicationDate21February2018DeutscheBankResearchSouthAfrica:2018BudgetAnalysis-AChangeisAfootGiventhepoliticalandeconomicbackdrop,thisisacommendablebudgetNationalTreasurypresentedamuchimprovedandcrediblebudgettoday.Insteadofstabilisingat-3.9%ofGDPoverthemediumterm,thefiscaldeficitisnowseenreducingto-3.6%inFY18/19andFY19/20beforefallingto-3.5%ayearafter.TheprimarybudgetisseeninbalancebyFY20/21fromapreviousestimateof-0.7%.Afasterconsolidationpathvsthe2017MTBPSwasafunctionofnewtaxadjustments,including1%increaseinVAT(R22bninrevenue)andasignificantreductioninexpenditure(R85bn)overthemediumterm.Inreturnforhighertaxes,aR35bnallocationhasbeenmadetoaffectfee-freetertiaryeducation,whilesocialbudgetshavebeenmorethanadequatelyprotected.Thisshouldsignificantlyreducet