巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-巴西：定位强化了我们的积极观点-20180216-12页

Pleaserefertoimportantinformation&authorsattheendofthereportLatamStrategy16February2018www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.comBrazil:Positioningreinforcesourpositiveview?TheBrazilianrealhasfailedtocatchupwithothercurrenciesdespitetherecentglobalsell-off,andisstillfarfromJanuary’shighs.?Togaugewhichfactorshavedriventhisperformance,wehaveupdatedourPCAapproach;wehavealsoaddedtheindexoflocalmacrofundpositioning.?NewresultsshowabreakbetweenUSD-andBRL-denominatedfixedincomeassets.?Whileglobalfinancialconditionsandriskpremium(appetite)remainthemostimportantfactorsforUSD-denominatedassets,localhedgefundallocationshavealsobeenakeydriverofBRL-denominatedassets.?Inthisregard,ourpositioningmodelsuggeststhat(i)localmacrofundsarenotsubstantiallyallocatedinBRLanddomesticinterestrates;and(ii)theUSDBRLhasbeenusedasaliquidhedgeoflate.?Shouldthe