巴黎银行-巴西-宏观形势-巴西：选举追踪-20180131-71页

BRAZIL:ELECTIONTRACKERJANUARY2018EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconhttp://www.hibor.com.cn/17.09.06.56.518.0+2.0+5.5+5.0+3.0+14.005101520253035JairBolsonaro(PSL)MarinaSilva(REDE)CiroGomes(PDT)GeraldoAlckmin(PSDB)Undecided,null&blank9.511.514.519.0ScenariowithoutLulaScenariowithLula32.0VOTESTRANSFERENCE:SCENARIOWITHOUTLULA(1STROUND)January31,2018|2Source:Datafolha,BNPParibas?MostofLula’svoterslookundecidedwithLulaoutoftherace,butsomevoterswouldmigratetoothercandidates,likeMarinaSilva(REDE),CiroGomes(PDT)andGeraldoAlckmin(PSDB).(*)Minimumandmaximumvaluesofvotingintentionarecalculatedbytheaveragebetweenbestandworstvotingintentionineachscenario(withLulaandwithoutLula)Votingintentionsforpresidentialelection(%)http://www.hibor.com.cn/4947464227293232Jun/17Sep/17Nov/