巴黎银行-南非-宏观经济-南非宏观状况：摆弄泰勒-20180126-11页

26January2018CEEMEAdesknotewww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comSouthAfrica:TinkeringwithTaylor?VariouscalibrationstotheTaylorruleofferamixedbagintermsoftheSouthAfricanReserveBank’sprospectivemonetarypolicyin2018.?Withtheinflationtrajectorysofter,theoutputgapsettocloseslowlyandpoliticalrisksabating,weseeroomfordovesonthemonetarypolicycommitteetoreappearinthecomingmonths.?Wecontinuetoexpect25bpcutstothereporateinMarchandMaytoendtheyearat6.25%.Background:RevisitingtheTaylorruleforSouthAfricaWerevisitourpreviousworkondevelopingvariouscalibrationsofthewell-known‘Taylorrule’1forSouthAfricanmonetarypolicy(pleaseaskforacopyofSouthAfrica:Theruleshavechanged,dated2June2014).Historically,therulewasseenasusefulinassessingtheadequatelevelofpolicyratesinaneconomyandinhelpingtoassesstheperformanceofpolicymakerswhotargetspecificlev