J.P.摩根-全球宏观数据观察-2018.1.26-96页

EconomicResearchJanuary26,2018GlobalDataWatch?Dollardeclinesaregenerallyconstructivefromaglobalperspective?Oilpricesnotyetagrowththreat,butoilsupplyneedstoshowstrong-erresponsetorisingdemand?Fadingoutliers:year-endconsumerbounceandAsianIPdip?Nextweek:GlobalmfgPMIdips;strongUSjobs(200k);quietFOMCFourquestionsIncomingeconomicnewssendsaconsistentpictureofstrengthatyear-end,withthisweekdeliveringafurthersignificantupwardrevisiontoEuroareagrowth.Withtheregionnowanticipatedtoexpand2.9%thisyear,theEuroareagrowthengineisnolongeranoxymoron.However,alongsidethispictureofbroad-basedstrengthrecentdevelopmentsraiseasetofchallengingques-tions.?Isaweakerdollarwhattheworldneedsnow?Currencymovementsrep-resentrelativepriceshifts,buttheyarenotzero-sumgames.Movementspromotingglobalmacroeconomicbalanceshouldbewelcomedwhilethosethatthreat