高盛-我们处在本轮周期的什么位置？（全球宏观）-20190204-23页

WHEREAREWEINTHEMARKETCYCLE?ISSUE75|February4,2019|5:35PMESTEquityResearchGlobalMacroResearchInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.Riskassetshaverecoveredalargeshareoflastyear’slosses,butsentimentstillseemslessebullientthanoneyearago,andinvestorsremainnervousaboutslowinggrowth.Againstthisbackdrop,howtointerpretrecentpriceaction—andwhetheritsignalsaturningpointformarkets—isTopofMind.Wesitdownwithlong-timeinvestorHowardMarks,whobelievesthatlastyear’srepricingreflectedacorrectionofexcessiveexuberanceratherthanamaterialchangeinthefundamentalbackdrop.Giventheriskrallysofarthisyear,hebelievesinvestorsarebacktobeingrelativelyoptimisticandrecommend